Table 1

The compliance game

		Applicant
		Continue with EU imposed reforms	Halt EU imposed reforms
EU	Support process toward EU membership	(c, c) Reformed membership	(s, b) Unreformed membership
EU	Delay process toward EU membership	(b, s) Reformed satellite	(d, d) No enlargement

Key: (x, y) = (payoff EU, payoff applicant)

Table 2

The extended compliance game

		Candidate
		Continue with EU imposed reforms (C)	Halt EU imposed reforms (D)	Reverse EU imposed reforms (P)
EU	Support process toward EU membership (C)	(2, 2)	(0, 3)	(-2, 0)
	Delay process toward EU membership (D)	(3, 0)	(1, 1)	(-1, 0)
	Halt EU membership (P)	(0, -2)	(0, -1)	(-1, -1)

Key: (x, y) = (payoff EU, payoff applicant)

Table 3

Stages of the enlargement process

States	Association Agreements	Application	Commission opinion	Start of negotiations	End of negotiations	Signing of Accession Treaty	Accession
*Bulgaria*	March 1993; 1 February 1995 (into force)	December 1995	July 1997	February 2000	17 December 2004	25 April 2005	1 January 2007
*Croatia*	October 2001*	21 February 2003	20 April 2004	N/A**	N/A	N/A	N/A
*Cyprus*	December 1972; Protocol 1987	3 July 1990	30 June 1993	30 March 1998	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Czech Republic*	December 1991 with Czechoslovakia; October 1993	January 1996	July 1997	March 1998	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Estonia*	12 June 1995; 1 February 1998 (into force)	November 1995	15 July 1997	March 1998	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Hungary*	December 1991; 1 February 1994 (into force)	March 1994	July 1997	30 March 1998	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Latvia*	June 1995; February 1998	October 1995	July 1997	February 2000	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Lithuania*	12 June 1995; 1 February 1998 (into force)	8 December 1995	July 1997	15 February 2000	13 December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Malta*	1971 (into force)	16 July 1990; October 1996 freezes application; re-activated 1998	July 1997	February 2000	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Poland*	December 1991	April 1994	July 1997	March 1998	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Romania*	February 1993; February 1995 (into force)	22 June 1995	July 1997	15 February 2000	14 December 2004	25 April 2005	1 January 2007
*Slovakia*	December 1991 with Czechoslovakia; October 1993	June 1995	July 1997	February 2000	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Slovenia*	June 1996	January 1996	July 1997	March 1998	December 2002	16 April 2003	1 May 2004
*Turkey*	12 September 1963 Additional Protocol from 23 November 1970	June 1987	20 December 1989	Candidate status December 1999, Projected start 3 October 2005	N/A	N/A	N/A

* Stabilization and Association Agreement

** Planned for the 17th of March 2005, but delayed by the European Council decision from the 16th of March 2005 (http://news.amnesty.org/index/ENGEUR640012005; reference 13.05.2005)

Sources:

General: Accession treaty Series no. 32 (2004). http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement (references 13.05.2005); Conclusions of Copenhagen European Council (December 2002); Nugent (2004: 276-7); Baun (2000: xi).

Table 4

The intensity of EU conditionality

candidate	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	mean 97-03	2004
*Slovenia*	0.35	0.26	0.18	0.12	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.16
*Hungary*	0.29	0.26	0.21	0.18	0.09	0.09	0.06	0.17
*Estonia*	0.26	0.24	0.24	0.15	0.12	0.09	0.09	0.17
*Czech Republic*	0.32	0.21	0.21	0.18	0.18	0.15	0.09	0.19
*Lithuania*	0.38	0.32	0.26	0.21	0.15	0.12	0.06	0.21
*Poland*	0.35	0.32	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.18	0.15	0.27
*Slovakia*	0.47	0.44	0.35	0.26	0.21	0.15	0.09	0.28
*Latvia*	0.47	0.44	0.41	0.38	0.32	0.24	0.12	0.34
*Bulgaria*	0.41	0.41	0.35	0.29	0.26	0.26	0.21	0.31	0.09
*Romania*	0.47	0.41	0.41	0.35	0.32	0.26	0.15	0.34	0.06
*average EU-8*	0.36	0.31	0.27	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.09	0.22
*average CEEC's*	0.38	0.33	0.29	0.24	0.20	0.16	0.11	0.24	0.02

Source: own compilation based on the European Commission's Regular Reports at http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/archives/key_documents/reports_2005_en.htm (consulted at 25 May 2005)

Table 5

Compliance to the internal market acquis: Notification and transposition of EC directives in the EU-8

	Directives not yet notified		Directives not fully transposed		Compliance index
*Lithuania*	12	0.8%	18	1.2%	1.83
*Slovenia*	87	5.7%	27	1.8%	1.11
*Poland*	60	3.9%	257	16.8%	0.49
*Estonia*	127	8.3%	124	8.1%	0.38
*Hungary*	168	11.0%	38	2.6%	0.33
*Latvia*	290	19.0%	70	4.6%	-0.90
*Slovakia*	193	12.6%	426	27.9%	-1.37
*Czech Republic*	360	23.6%	163	10.7%	-1.89
average EU-8	162	10.6%	140	9.2%