Table 1

The compliance game

  Applicant
Continue with EU imposed reforms Halt EU imposed reforms
EU Support process toward EU membership (c, c)
Reformed membership
(s, b)
Unreformed membership
Delay process toward EU membership (b, s)
Reformed satellite
(d, d)
No enlargement

Key: (x, y) = (payoff EU, payoff applicant)

Table 2

The extended compliance game

  Candidate
Continue with EU imposed reforms
(C)
Halt EU imposed reforms
(D)
Reverse EU imposed reforms
(P)
EU Support process toward EU membership (C) (2, 2) (0, 3) (-2, 0)
Delay process toward EU membership (D) (3, 0) (1, 1) (-1, 0)
Halt EU membership (P) (0, -2) (0, -1) (-1, -1)

Key: (x, y) = (payoff EU, payoff applicant)

Table 3

Stages of the enlargement process

States Association Agreements Application Commission opinion Start of negotiations End of negotiations Signing of Accession Treaty Accession
Bulgaria March 1993; 1 February 1995 (into force) December 1995 July 1997 February 2000 17 December 2004 25 April 2005 1 January 2007
Croatia October 2001* 21 February 2003 20 April 2004 N/A** N/A N/A N/A
Cyprus December 1972; Protocol 1987 3 July 1990 30 June 1993 30 March 1998 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Czech Republic December 1991 with Czechoslovakia; October 1993 January 1996 July 1997 March 1998 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Estonia 12 June 1995; 1 February 1998 (into force) November 1995 15 July 1997 March 1998 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Hungary December 1991; 1 February 1994 (into force) March 1994 July 1997 30 March 1998 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Latvia June 1995; February 1998 October 1995 July 1997 February 2000 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Lithuania 12 June 1995; 1 February 1998 (into force) 8 December 1995 July 1997 15 February 2000 13 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Malta 1971 (into force) 16 July 1990; October 1996 freezes application; re-activated 1998 July 1997 February 2000 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Poland December 1991 April 1994 July 1997 March 1998 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Romania February 1993; February 1995 (into force) 22 June 1995 July 1997 15 February 2000 14 December 2004 25 April 2005 1 January 2007
Slovakia December 1991 with Czechoslovakia; October 1993 June 1995 July 1997 February 2000 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Slovenia June 1996 January 1996 July 1997 March 1998 December 2002 16 April 2003 1 May 2004
Turkey 12 September 1963 Additional Protocol from 23 November 1970 June 1987 20 December 1989 Candidate status December 1999, Projected start 3 October 2005 N/A N/A N/A

* Stabilization and Association Agreement

** Planned for the 17th of March 2005, but delayed by the European Council decision from the 16th of March 2005 (http://news.amnesty.org/index/ENGEUR640012005; reference 13.05.2005)

Sources:

General: Accession treaty Series no. 32 (2004). http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement (references 13.05.2005); Conclusions of Copenhagen European Council (December 2002); Nugent (2004: 276-7); Baun (2000: xi).

Table 4

The intensity of EU conditionality

candidate 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 mean
97-03
2004
Slovenia 0.35 0.26 0.18 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.03 0.16  
Hungary 0.29 0.26 0.21 0.18 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.17  
Estonia 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.17  
Czech Republic 0.32 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.09 0.19  
Lithuania 0.38 0.32 0.26 0.21 0.15 0.12 0.06 0.21  
Poland 0.35 0.32 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.18 0.15 0.27  
Slovakia 0.47 0.44 0.35 0.26 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.28  
Latvia 0.47 0.44 0.41 0.38 0.32 0.24 0.12 0.34  
Bulgaria 0.41 0.41 0.35 0.29 0.26 0.26 0.21 0.31 0.09
Romania 0.47 0.41 0.41 0.35 0.32 0.26 0.15 0.34 0.06
average EU-8 0.36 0.31 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.22  
average CEEC's 0.38 0.33 0.29 0.24 0.20 0.16 0.11 0.24 0.02

Source: own compilation based on the European Commission's Regular Reports at http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/archives/key_documents/reports_2005_en.htm (consulted at 25 May 2005)

Table 5

Compliance to the internal market acquis: Notification and transposition of EC directives in the EU-8

  Directives not yet notified Directives not fully transposed Compliance index
Lithuania 12 0.8% 18 1.2% 1.83
Slovenia 87 5.7% 27 1.8% 1.11
Poland 60 3.9% 257 16.8% 0.49
Estonia 127 8.3% 124 8.1% 0.38
Hungary 168 11.0% 38 2.6% 0.33
Latvia 290 19.0% 70 4.6% -0.90
Slovakia 193 12.6% 426 27.9% -1.37
Czech Republic 360 23.6% 163 10.7% -1.89
average EU-8 162 10.6% 140 9.2%  

©2007 by Bernard Steunenberg and Antoaneta Dimitrova
formated and tagged by KH, 11.6.2007